Billy Murphy says poker made him a millionaire …
But not in the way you might guess.
Billy, now a serial entrepreneur, says poker taught him probabilistic thinking. He learned how to analyze the likelihood of various outcomes. He learned when to double down and when to fold.
He achieved financial independence at age 29, a feat that he credits to applying a concept known as “expected value” (EV) to his business decisions.
EV isn’t just a formula, Billy says. It’s a mental model for making smarter choices.
Expected value is the sum of all possible values for a variable, with each value multiplied by its probability of occurrence.
“Whaaaa? What does that mean?”
Here’s a simple example: